Mark Carpani A Comment -- General Comments From an Expert A Commentary PAST TOP PICK Jan 10, 2011

There's a lot of focus on interest rates. In his business, he finds that it's more about the stability of rates than about the direction. The past 6 months have seen greater stability in interest rates, which lets transaction activity pick up. That should lead to price discovery in the sector, and makes him bullish on some key themes.

The focus has shifted from tariffs to rate cuts. The Canadian and US central banks have delivered cuts that kicked off a new cycle. Initial reaction was mixed, but that's not unusual as investors recalibrate the path and pace of future cuts. We could see a bigger pullback from all-time highs, but not a break from this uptrend, led by the tech giants, consumer discretionary and utilities. On the TSX, materials and financials continue to lead. Bank stocks are climbing (she's bullish). Industrials lag, waiting for a clear outlook.

Several decades since we've seen this. Gold has played a major role in shifts in reserve currencies. Investors are looking more closely at gold, and at gold equities, as an investment alternative.

Gold has doubled over the last 3 years. Up 47-48% YTD. Things really kicked off when Russia invaded Ukraine, and sovereign countries realized that no assets are safe. So it's been a steady move, with significant velocity picking up in 2025. There's been increased geopolitical uncertainty this year with Ukraine and the Middle East, as well as around the Federal Reserve and Trump trying to assert his influence.

There's also diminishing comfort around the US dollar, retail demand for ETFs, and insatiable Chinese retail demand. Gold bullion and gold ETFs have become easier to own in China.

Velocity and momentum in gold should continue.

Investing 101: Willingness to Accept Risk vs. Ability to Accept Risk

Willingness to accept risk

An investor's willingness to accept risk relates to whether they are a risk-seeking individual or not. This piece caters more to the psychological side of things such as how much volatility they can withstand and what kind of returns they expect. It also looks at what an investor wants to get out of their portfolio.

Ability to accept risk

This piece focuses more on the facts of one's financial situation and less on the qualitative side. This looks at items like age, knowledge/experience, portfolio size, employment status and salary. Someone who is more able to accept risk is someone who is young, gainfully employed, understands investing and has a large portfolio to begin with.
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It sure was. Historically, the period from mid-August to mid-October has been the weakest and most volatile time of the year for stock markets. Usually we see big corrections and selloffs and worries. Not this year though. 

Markets have been rocking and rolling right through September. New all-time highs, not just here in Canada but in the US and around the world.

At the moment, it looks as though they want to keep on going. Steady march upward is quite impressive. More importantly, seeing catchup in addition to gold. Silver finally broke out over $35 for the first time in years, and it's taking another big run at $50. It's like we saw in 2011.
 
Platinum is starting to move. On his way in to the studio, he heard someone talking about palladium (no one ever talks about palladium ;) so you know that things are really getting going.

Rallying in precious metals is in anticipation of a general weakness in currencies such as the USD. We're seeing gold go up against all currencies.

He's finding recently that we're starting to see rotation within it. Some parts are starting to level off and even have corrections. But the parts related to AI are still doing well.

Small caps, too, are doing well. The mega-caps have run so far for so long, that now some people are taking profits and are looking at small- and mid-caps. Those areas haven't moved up as much and have room to catch up.

What was interesting about September was that we had a great move in resource markets -- Canada, Australia, Saudi Arabia, South Africa. The other part in the Asia-Pacific is that China had a good month, as did Taiwan and Korea.

Rally is pretty broad-based, but most of what he's seeing is that countries sensitive to technology and metals are doing particularly well right now.

At his firm, they do relative strength analysis. This involves head-to-head battles of stocks/indices/sectors against each other -- billions of calculations every single night. It tells them who's winning these battles. Gives insight into where is $$ going in and where is it coming out? The result tells them who's outperforming on a relative basis, or is it a case of the tide lifting or sinking all boats.

For example, starting to see energy stocks come up in the RSI rankings. Particularly intriguing because the price of oil isn't doing all that great. Last week, looked as though it wanted  to move; this week, not so much with the uncertainty of the OPEC+ meeting coming up. ADP payrolls came out yesterday, and people are wondering how strong, really, is the outlook for demand.

When you're wondering, technicians historically say that stocks tend to lead commodities. In this case, even though oil isn't doing well, the energy stocks are starting to do really well.

Global markets have been on an upswing. It's especially important to look outside NA on a currency basis, because big moves up in the US stock market have coincided with big moves down in the USD. So if you're a Canadian holding US stocks, there's been a lag in US performance because of the currency. Whereas on a more common currency basis, Canadian and international equities have done better than US ones.